Прогнозування економічного розвитку регіону з використанням фактору технічного прогресу

Abstract

UK: У статті розглянуто методологію прогнозування економічного зростання в регіоні на підставі дослідження структурних зрушень чисельного складу населення працездатного віку і фактора науково-технічного прогресу, який визначає продуктивність праці. На прикладі Запорізької області за наведеною методологією проведено моделювання і сформовано прогноз. EN: The article discusses the methodology of economic growth forecasting in the region on the basis of the study of structural changes of the working age population and the technical progress factor, which determines productivity. At the regional level the summary assessment that characterizes the level of economic development of the region, is the gross regional product (GRP). In Zaporozhye region GRP growth is general by accompanied an increase in population of working age. In the region the working-age population exceeds over the number of working places, causing unemployment. Registered unemployment in Zaporizhzhya region is between 0.2 and 3.2 percent. However the development of Zaporizhzhya region is accompanied with a total decrease in population. The lowest number of births was registered in 2000 and amounted to 10,016 persons. The number of births is increased in the coming years, but does not have the level of 1990 by the result in 2011, so the number of deaths exceeds the number of births so far. The aim of the study is forecasting the impact of structural changes employment potential and its impact on economic development in Zaporozhye region. By using a defined methodology it was performed forecasting of structural changes in the labor of Zaporizhia region, which will happen in 2048 with the optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios change of demography. The decline in the population of working age is identified, as a result of forecasting in all three scenarios. In these conditions, unemployment will disappear, and the company will be forced to plan their work in terms of expensive labor. Fall of the working age population will be accompanied with changes in the load on employees. The total population with ages “before” and “over” working age will be increased since 2012. Even if significantly increase the retirement age will not affect this process and increase the birth rate will degrade the burden on employees. Beginning from 2028, negative difference between the number of working-age population and other groups will be experienced. The situation will worsen in the coming years. Undoubtedly the same changes in the working age population will affect on the GRP of Zaporozhye region. To prevent the negative impact of this phenomenon is necessary to create a new strategy in 2020, focused on sustainable development of the region in terms of reducing the population of working age. Formation of such a program, taking into account the results of the study should include refitting and new technologies that implement sustainable use of the potentials of the region. RU: В статье рассматривается методология прогнозирования экономического роста в регионе на основании исследования структурных сдвигов численности населения трудоспособного возраста и фактора технического прогресса, определяющего продуктивность труда. На примере Запорожской области по данной методологии проводится моделирование и формируется прогноз.